WYNN Gets Unlucky In The Quarter

I wrote a post back in April trying to quantify the affect that luck has on the quarterly earnings numbers of the casino operators – in that case, $LVS.   Tonight, I did a similar exercise with $WYNN’s quarterly numbers, based on the limited data in their 8-k filing.  Here’s what I found – comparing the actual win percentages to the mid points of the expected ranges of win percentages:

As you can see, WYNN had terrible “luck” in Las Vegas* – Steve Wynn even mentioned on the call that Baccarat numbers went negative in April for the first time he could remember.  Last year’s second quarter win % for the Las Vegas table games segment was 27.6%, and this year it was down to 15%.  Their expected range is 21% – 24%.   Steve Wynn actually had some phenomenal comments about this variation, which I will get to tomorrow when I post the conference call tidbits, but the gist was that variation like this actually isn’t good for the customer either – I think he was saying that he doesn’t want the customers to get completely shellacked like they did in Q2 2011.

I lit it up on Stocktwits tonight with Steve Wynn comments – maybe some of them will make you laugh.

Stay tuned for a recap of the conference call, which was filled with typical Steve Wynn awesomeness, although was lacking a political diatribe…

-KD

disclosure: no gaming positions (no positions on $LVS, $WYNN, $MGM, $CZR, $MPEL)

*note: this analysis is admittedly imperfect.  Not all casino games have the same expected win % or volume of play.

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