Norilsk Nickel Tender – A Game of Russian Roulette?

I wrote previously about the Norilsk Nickel tender which will be completed this week if everything goes well.  The “Russian Roulette” headline for this trade is just too easy, but I wanted to use it anyway because at least in Russian Roulette we can figure out what the odds are.  In the NN tender, however, there are some unquantifiable risks, as I outlined in my previous piece.  For example, if you’re playing Russian Roulette with a 6-chambered gun and one bullet, you’re a 1in 6 chance to blow your head off.  What, however, are the odds that a backroom deal between oligarchs ends up blowing up the Norilsk Nickel tender?  Who knows.  Certainly not me.

As Big Show says: “Get Lucky!”

-KD

disclosure: I own shares of $NILSY.  There is significant risk in this trade.

 

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